Post-Yuletide: Festive bazaar ends as airlines fly empty, return to equilibrium

While the ‘Yuletide bazaar’ saw tickets peaking between N400,000 and N650,000 due to desperate demand, the post-holiday return to normalcy is proving to be a sober reality check for the industry, writes WOLE SHADARE

As the “Yuletide Bazaar” winds down, the Nigerian aviation market is experiencing its traditional but sharp correction. The shift from the N300,000– N600,000 peak-season spikes back to low-season pricing is now in full swing, though the floor for these fares is notably higher than in previous years. While fares have dropped significantly from their December highs, they haven’t crashed back to 2024 levels.

Travel patterns stabilise

In January and February, travel patterns stabilise. Since planes are no longer flying ghost legs to reposition for holiday crowds, the necessity for compensatory pricing disappears, allowing fares to return to their natural baseline. On major trunk routes like Lagos–Abuja, economy tickets are currently ranging between N77,000 and N120,000 for travellers booking at least a few days in advance.

Early-bird buckets that were completely closed off in December have reappeared. Some low-cost operators are offering promotional fares below N70,000, but these are rare and sell out quickly. January is dominated by corporate travellers and traders.

This group is more consistent but also more sensitive to the “income elasticity wall.” If fares remain at peak levels, business volume drops, forcing airlines to lower prices to maintain their corporate contracts and frequent flyer volume.

Nigeria’s active fleet is at a historic low (under 40 aircraft), and the utilisation of these planes changes. Many Nigerian airlines bring in extra aircraft on short-term ACMI (Wet Lease) contracts specifically for the December peak.

Once these temporary leases expire or the aircraft return to standard maintenance cycles in Q1, the artificial scarcity of seats relative to the massive holiday demand eases, leading to a more stable price environment.

Industry experts like Alex Nwuba maintained that for a Boeing 737 to break even on a Lagos–Abuja leg, the fare must exceed ₦100,000, explaining that anything lower is technically a loss-leader to stimulate cash flow during this slump.

Flying half-empty. He posited that, with a ₦8 profit per kilometre margin, airlines are extremely cautious. Flying half-empty planes at low fares is a recipe for the “mortality. The January 2026 low season is proving to be a critical stress test for the Nigerian aviation sector, as the predictable post-

Yuletide slump is being exacerbated by new fiscal policies and a deepening structural capacity crisis. While December saw a “Yuletide Squeeze” with one-way fares to the South-East and other regional hubs hitting peaks of N300,000 to N400,000, and in some cases N500,000, the market has now hit an income elasticity wall.

In December, the South-East and other regional hubs saw aircraft at 95% capacity. Traffic in January has averaged as low as 35% occupancy and may continue till September 2026. This imbalance creates a ghost flight scenario that ripples through the entire industry’s pricing and sustainability models.

Airlines are now flying less than 50 per cent of their capacity, exposing the ‘glut’ in the airline business, with many struggling for market share as they fly virtually empty on most occasions. The current slump is characterised by a massive imbalance in directional load factors. Industry data highlights the severity.

Declining traffic

Industry analysts noted that passenger traffic has declined by roughly 20% to 25% over the last three years. Fares have risen faster than consumer incomes, meaning that once the must-travel festive window closes, the general public immediately retreats from the skies, leaving cabins vacant.

In response to these empty cabins, we are seeing a shift in how operators manage the low-season slump. Rather than flying half-empty planes, airlines are increasingly ghosting their own schedules— cancelling low-occupancy flights and merging passengers onto a single service to ensure a higher load factor. Unlike previous years, the 2026 low season is facing unique pressures.

The domestic active fleet remains dangerously low (estimated at fewer than 40 aircraft nationwide). This lack of scale prevents airlines from lowering fares to stimulate demand during the slump, as fixed costs must be spread across fewer seats.

Seasonal fares

The Chairman of United Airlines, Prof. Obiorah Okonkwo, expressed concerns about why people dwell so much on the Christmas fare hike, stressing that in every part of the world, there are seasonal fares. These seasonal fares, he said, are not only in aviation, but also in hotels, adding that when that season comes, some people operate only seasonally.

“If you go to some holiday resorts, the restaurants are open in summer, and in summer they make the money to pay their rent in winter because in winter they are closed. However, for operators and air tickets in December, you mentioned the regular-season fare of N150,000. The average fare cost we are talking about is about N300,000 in December.

“When you fly a 180-capacity aircraft to Enugu or Anambra, and you return with two passengers on that 180-capacity aircraft, and you have to spread the cost per seat, you are actually still at less than N150,000 on the return ticket, if we agree that airfares are calculated by available seats. I don’t think any airline averages a yield of more than N150,000, no matter how much you sell your individual ticket”, Okonkwo stated.

He further maintained that the airfares charged by airlines are among the cheapest in the world, despite our operational costs, levies, and taxes being among the highest.

“This is simply because we are very sensitive to purchasing power. We agree that commercial benefit depends on how many tickets are sold, the passenger load. We think that if prices are reasonable, we will be able to achieve better yields,” he added. Okonkwo further disclosed that from February, the carriers practically fly empty because of low passenger traffic and fly at a loss.”

“I have checked my capacity today; some routes are averaging below 50 per cent. As industry experts, we know that even with a 75-80 per cent passenger load, we are still losing money.

“So we go on to lose money for the next month. In other parts of the world, airlines ground their aircraft, and only those with the financial muscle to sustain the losses continue to fly. My economy for March and February must be factored into my annual calculation,” he added.

Last line

The January 2026 drop in airfares is essentially the market exhaling after the “Yuletide Squeeze.” While December was defined by airlines’ pricing for survival, January represents a return to a fragile, low-season equilibrium.

Wole Shadare